Is Smoking A Scapegoat?

he headline this morning: "Ex-Marlboro Man dies from smoking-related disease..." In the article you read, "Lawson died Jan. 10 at his home in San Luis Obispo of respiratory failure due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, his wife, Susan Lawson said Sunday." LOS ANGELES (AP) — Eric Lawson, who portrayed the rugged Marlboro man in cigarette ads during the late 1970s, has died. He was 72.  Ex-Marlboroman dies from smoking-related disease.

Average life expectancy for a man in the US born today is 76, for a male born in 1941 it was 63.1 years, so in effect Lawson exceeded his life expectancy by almost 10 years and they are blaming his early demise on smoking:  Life expectancy in the USA, 1900-98

Now here is the thing, they do not know that his COPD was of a result of his being a smoker, for people who have never smoked suffer from it as well, they assume that it was. If it is COPD is a result from smoking then why is there a gender difference? In 2009, more than 70,000 females died compared to almost 64,000 males. Women are about twice as likely to be diagnosed with chronic bronchitis as men. In 2011, 3.3 million men (29.6 per 1,000 populations) had a diagnosis of chronic bronchitis compared to 6.8 million women (56.7 per 1,000 populations).  ChronicObstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Fact Sheet.

Granted that the majority of people who subcumbul to COPD were/are smokers, and this is a strong correlation. When they talk about risk factors they are talking about things in common with those who historically have suffered with COPD. Other risk factors of COPD include exposure to air pollution, secondhand smoke and occupational dusts and chemicals, heredity, a history of childhood respiratory infections and socioeconomic status. Ibid

From these I will just select two to point to the weakness of their argument. First, secondhand smoke, The World Health Organization's first study on SHS is a textbook example of the right way to conduct an epidemiological study. Unfortunately for them, it yielded unexpected results. They responded by doing a second one, a meta-analysis that allowed them to extract the results they wanted. The participants consisted of 650 patients with lung cancer and 1542 control subjects. Patients with smoking related diseases were excluded from the control group. None of the subjects in either group had smoked more than 400 cigarettes in their lifetime. On March 8, 1998, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported "The world's leading health organization has withheld from publication a study which shows that not only might there be no link between passive smoking and lung cancer but that it could have even a protective effect."  The WHO Study

Now I would like to turn to of the other risk (correlation) factor they associate with COPD, and that is air pollution.

The first television came into my neighborhood in 1952; I was 9 at the time. In the evening after our chores were done the kids in the nearby houses would all converge in Mr. Harington’s front room, sit on the floor, and watch TV. I remember many of the shows that were presented to us free except for the cost of watching the commercials. There were the Howdy Doddy Show, Ozzie Nelson, Sugerfoot, The Rifleman, The Grand Old Opry, and many more, but we kids had to watch, if we were to watch at all, what the adults decided to watch

We were at the beginning of the Cold War, with a hot war going on in Korea. The government was conducting above ground Atomic Bomb tests out west, and there was a push to make them do the test underground. I remember watching a Talking Head show (they did not call them that then) about the cost of doing above ground testing in human disease due to the radioactive fallout. I remember distinctly someone arguing that the incident of death by lung cancer would increase by a certain percentage do to people breathing in the fallout down wind. Well, guess what, most of the US was downwind from where the test was being done.

In fact, according to the cancer institute, knowing would still help, because most of the 7,000 to 70,000 extra cancers that the radiation may produce have not yet been diagnosed.  Cancer Studyon 50s Bomb Test Is Released

"Earlier this month, the first results of the RPHP health study were released in an article in the International Journal of Health Services. Baby teeth of St. Louis baby boomers who died of cancer by age 50 had more than double -- 122 percent more -- the Sr-90 concentration than did Boomers who are alive and healthy. This research, known as a case-control study, is the first evidence that bomb tests harmed Americans using actual levels of fallout in human bodies. It is not yet possible to estimate the number of cancer victims from fallout, but it appears that the CDC estimate of 15,000 deaths is too low." The hugemushroom clouds from atom bomb tests of the 1950s and 1960s are anunforgettable part of the American saga.

Here is the point I am making, while the government’s CDC slants their report to make it seem like smoking is all by itself responsible for that vast majority of incidents of COPD while in fact it could just as well be the combination of breathing in the fallout on top of smoking that is causing the increase in lung cancer. In 1940 11% or a rate of 120.1 per 100,000 of all deaths were attributed to cancer, in 1950 it was only 14%, but by 1975 this has risen to 23% or a rate or 268.2 per 100,000 deaths. Almost everyone smoked from 1930-40 until the big push to make it unacceptable by blaming all lung cancer on it.  LeadingCauses of Death, 1900-1998

In my opinion the government does not want to accept the responsibility for poisoning the air with fallout and has found a convenient scapegoat.